A few weeks ago, most assumed the Philadelphia Eagles would have to travel to Detroit to play the Lions in the NFC Championship Game.

That’s not the case.

The second-seeded Eagles will host the third-seeded Washington Commanders at 3 p.m. with a trip to New Orleans on the line.

The NFC East rivals split their regular-season matchups. The Eagles beat the Commanders 26-18 at home in Week 11. The Commanders beat the Eagles 36-33 in Week 16 in Washington.

In that second game, the typically stout Eagles defense allowed 22 points in the fourth quarter to Jayden Daniels and company.

Was that just a coincidence?

Daniels was one of the best quarterbacks this season in the fourth quarter, and his 113 passer rating in the final quarter proves that. He led many fourth-quarter comebacks, including against the Eagles, Chicago Bears and in the NFC Wild Card Round against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. In Week 16, Daniels threw five touchdown passes, including three in the fourth quarter, to help beat the Eagles.

Daniels greatly improved as his rookie campaign unfolded, leading the Commanders to their first conference championship in 33 years. He has taken care of the ball very well lately, and has not had a turnover yet this postseason.

Rookie quarterbacks are 0-5 all-time in conference championship games, but Daniels is not a typical rookie. He is very dangerous, and the Eagles need to be ready to stop him.

Unlike the previous game against Washington, I don’t see the Eagles defense giving up 22 fourth-quarter points. The Eagles allow an average of 17.8 points per game. With the game being at home, the Eagles should hold Washington to under 25 points.

Jalen Carter is on a tear this season. In the Divisional Round against the Los Angeles Rams, he finished with five tackles, two for loss, two quarterback hits and two sacks, including his game-saving sack on Matt Stafford. If Carter is on, which he should be, he can get pressure on Daniels. Carter will go up against Washington backup right guard Trent Scott after starter Sam Cosmi tore his ACL against Detroit. So, Carter should exploit that matchup. 

In two games against the Eagles, Brian Robinson Jr. rushed for 87 yards (an average of 3.3 yards per carry). So, the Eagles have done well against him. I am not sure how different it will be without Nakobe Dean, but Zack Baun and Oren Burks were fine at linebacker last week. we know we can trust Baun, but hopefully Burks plays well again.

Terry McLaurin is a dangerous receiver for Washington. But teammate Dyami Brown is actually the Commanders’ leading receiver in the playoffs, having 187 yards and a touchdown. Quinyon Mitchell, who injured his shoulder last week, will play Sunday. The Eagles need to have big games out of him, Cooper DeJean and Darius Slay.

The question comes down to the offense.

Jalen Hurts injured his knee against the Rams. Will he be 100%? He spoke Friday and said the injury has gotten better, but also anticipates wearing a knee brace.

The Eagles are a run-first team. We all know that. But if Hurts is not 100%, his ability to scramble could be a major issue. Hurts took a lot of bad sacks against the Rams, mainly because he holds onto the ball too long. But some of those sacks he normally avoids with his legs.

If Hurts’ can’t scramble, Kellen Moore better dial up quick passes to A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith. Moore has to drill it in Hurts’ head that, if he can’t run, find an open receiver or just throw the ball away. Dallas Goedert also avoided an injury designation, so having the standout tight end will be another help for Hurts, who may have to pass more.  

Also, Saquon Barkley needs to get more carries. He already gets a lot of touches, but he rushed for 296 yards with four TDs against Washington (146 yards in Week 11 and 150 in Week 16). He has had success against Washington, and could very well do that in this game. The Commanders do not have a great run defense, averaging 137.1 rushing yards per game.

The offensive line has been great creating holes for Barkley, but they may be without center Cam Jurgens. He finally got back to the practice Friday, but the Eagles listed him as questionable. 

If Jurgens is unavailable, that is a big blow to the operate. The hope is he will play, but the Eagles better be prepared if he can’t go. That could affect the running and passing game. Barkley is just too explosive for me to get too worried about the running game, though.

But Hurts could be blitzed way more. His pocket awareness has not been great, aside from not making bad decisions and turning the ball over. The offensive line usually doesn’t allow seven sacks like last week, but if Hurts can’t be as mobile again, and Jurgens is out, Moore and the entire coaching staff better have a special game-plan based on Hurts’ health.

The Eagles are six-point favorites as of Friday. I see more of a three-point game and, in typical Eagles’ fashion, it’ll go down to the end.