UFC 281- Tough fights in a tough town

For calendar year 2022, there will only be three more title defenses before New Year’s Eve. Two of those will be occurring this upcoming weekend at UFC 281 from Madison Square Garden in New York City. I stand firm by what I written last month, the fight card from UFC 280 in Abu Dhabi was in fact the most well rounded pay per view card of the entire year. This month’s card is also impressive and is going to be a lot of fun to watch. But it does not actually measure all the way up in substance to last month’s event.

One other note about the UFC 280 article from last month, I really want to reiterate to readers who are seeking fight picks, that if you take a moment to re-read last month’s time stamped article and compare it against the UFC 280 results, you will find that the predictions listed from last month’s article went 5 for 5, 100% accuracy. That represented an all time best for me, and while no readers should expect such definitively accuracy every month. This month, I won’t be making predictions about all five Main Card fights, but we will be getting into nitty gritty details about the top 3 fights. So with that being said, let’s get straight into it, beginning with the highly anticipated main event, which is Israel Adesanya’s 3^rd Middleweight title defense of the year.

Main Event

Middleweight (185lb) Championship

Champion Israel Adesanya (23-1) (New Zeland) vs #4 Alex Pereira (6-1) (Brazil)

Adasanya who trains in New Zeland (born in Nigeria) has been the middleweight champion for the last several years. Racking up impressive title defenses against challengers like Robert Whitaker, Marvin Vettori and Jared Cannonier. But this Saturday night the “Last Stylebender” will face a challenge unlike any opponent whom he has faced in recent years. Hungry Brazilian newcomer Alex Pereira has been knocking out UFC opponents in three of his last three fights. We are in a time of transition in the UFC currently, we have seen several successful title reigns end in other weight classes recently, former champions Kamaru Usman, Charles Olivera, even Valentina Shevchenko (who is debatable to have been awarded her decision victory over Talia Santos earlier this summer) Pereira is hungry and vicious, and a head hunter with a punch which I don’t think Adesanya has felt from any of his previous opponents. My instinct is that the Adesanya title reign will end on Saturday night, and for Alex Pereira a new day so begins. In Adesanya’s last fight with Jared Cannonier, speed held the key to victory for the champion in spite of being threatened by Cannonier’s power. Cannonier however had been at a significant height, reach and even age disadvantage vs the current champion and none of these luxuries will apply in the fight against Pereira. Alex Pereira is currently the underdog, so one may want to place their bets soon before live odds may shift after the first round or later.

Co-Main Event

Women’s Straweight (115lb) Championship

For champion Carla Esparza, this is the first title defense of her second title reign. Twice she was awarded the Women’s Straweight championship, both times for victories over fellow American “Thug” Rose Namajunas. The first victory had occurred many years ago in 2013, and Esparza’s wrestling skills had earned her a submission victory in that fight. Namajunas vs Esparza 2 from UFC 274 this past May, is easily ranked among fans as one of the most tediously (not exciting) title fights in any UFC weight class regardless of gender. The two small women had circled each other in that exchange for 25minutes occasionally throwing a small punch or making a take down attempt. It felt like Esparza didn’t so much win that fight as to say that two of three judges wanted to punish the champion (Namajunas) for not putting more excitement into the title defense.

A much more exciting and competitive title defense was Namajunas vs Zhang Wei Lei 2 at UFC 268 held approximately 1 year ago. Zhang Wei Lei a former Straweight champion herself is quite hungry to get her belt back, she has improved her wrestling game (Esparza’s strong point) and carry’s a huge speed and power advantage over the American champion. I would prefer to be patriotic and tell you that the USA fighter will prevail in this challenge, but all research shows otherwise. Expectation is that Zhang Wei Lei will land a great power punch combination, or will wrestle Esparza down, and drop elbows until a referee stoppage gives her the TKO. Zhang is a heavy favorite (-300) and although Esparza enjoys being an underdog, this time I believe she is out of her element. Anticipation is that two titles will change hands this Saturday night.

Lightweight (155lb) Match up

#3 Dustin Porier (28-7) (USA) vs # Michael Chandler (23-7) (USA)

In the third and final fight before the co-main event, we the fans will be treated to what will likely be an exciting (and bloody) boxing slug match between Dustin Poirier and Michael Chandler, in recent months both fighters had their chance to challenge former Lightweight Champion Charles Olivera, but Olivera managed to shut both of them down even when initially appearing to be in trouble against each of them in the first round. The winner of this fight, would probably earn the first chance to go against new lightweight champion Islam Makhachev (23-1), but all speculation is that Makhachev will defend his title first against current featherweight champion Alexander Volkanovski. A fight in which Makhachev will hold a very significant height and reach advantange over his challenger.

Michael Chandler probably carries more power in his punches than Dustin Poirier during the early rounds, but his speed will not be able to keep up with Porier who had initially trained as a boxer before switching to MMA. Chandler’s last octagon appearance ended with him scoring an exciting front kick knock out to the chin of Tony Ferguson, but Poirier, a faster opponent will not likely leave himself open to being hit with that attack. Poirier’s wrestling skills are probably his Achilles’ heel, and Chandler, a former Belator MMA champion, has been improving his wrestling skills with each passing UFC fight. His best chance at victory this Saturday will be to try to take Dustin down in each of the three rounds, but if this fight becomes a fully stand up affair (similar to Chandler vs Gaetje at UFC 268) Chandler may have the toughness to avoid being TKO’d again, But he will lack the speed and gas tank to win a boxing match with Poirier and will likely lose a unanimous judges decision. Of the three fights previewed in this article, this is the one you should use the most caution if electing to gamble on.

Have fun everyone and bet smart. Hopefully I’ll be returning for an on air interview with the CornerPub guys during an upcoming month, and I’m hard at work at home in California on an MMA gambling guide book which will mean to be available for your purchase in time for next year’s Christmas 2023.

Finally before I go, I’d like to deliver an election day SSCS shout out…. This goes to the registered voters of the state of California, who voted (with 80% margins of victory across two propositions) NOT to legalize sports gambling in any way shape or form across the state of California. – These two failed ballots meaning that many honest and and tactical skilled analysts like myself, must now (and for years to come) continue to drive in their cars (for four hours or more in each direction) across the desert to the bordering states of Nevada and Arizona to place legal bets on sporting events. (Enjoy your cell phone sports betting apps Pennsylvania and New Jersey residents!) and once again… thanks a lot California voters! You are my SSCS of the entire year. 😉