In every calendar year the UFC holds between nine and twelve numbered MMA Pay Per View events. So if you’ve been saving your $79.00 order fee in a piggy bank all year long, now would be the time to break that bank open because this happens to be the best main card of the year. This is the one which you have been waiting to watch. This is not to discredit that there have been many fantastic fights and fight cards already in 2022, but of all the numbered cards this year, both previous and upcoming… this is the card with the most solid, competitive and most unpredictable five fights positioned on the main card.

Very rarely do I chime in about all five main fight cards, but this month we are going to do just that. Let’s start by bringing an alert to the time zone differential of Saturday’s main card, and then we are going to get into analysis.

Early Start Times-

UFC 280 is being held in Dubai, part of the United Arab Emirates. – In order to begin the main card at 9pm in the evening Dubai time, this means that for you west coast viewers like me, be ready to watch the Main card at 11am, and for all my CornerPub friends back in Philly and other places within the Eastern time zone- for you the main card fights will begin at 2pm Saturday afternoon.

Main Event

Lightweight (155lb) Championship

#1 Charles Olivera (33-8) (Brazil)  vs #4 Islam Makhachev (22-1) (Russia)

While technically not a title defense, this is in fact the fourth Lightweight title fight in a row for former champion Charles Olivera of Brazil. Olivera was stripped of his title 6months ago on the friday before his scheduled UFC 274 title defense against challenger Justin Gaethje. During the official weigh in, he came in at 155.5  (half a pound too heavy) and failed to make that weight go away during the hour he was given to correct it. This did not stop him from wrestling Gaethje into a very fast submission the following evening, but it did mean that in order to be handed his belt back, he must figure out how to both make weight correctly, and also defeat a very serious challenge in Islam Makhachev from Russia, a Daghestani fighter being coached by the most dominant 155lb champion the UFC has ever seen. Mr. Khabib Nurmagomedov…

Olivera has been the betting underdog in all three of his previous title fights but all three times he has proven the critics wrong with dominant victories. Not to interrupt the status quo, Olivera remains the underdog for this Saturday’s main event. But while I had anticipated his victory in each of his last three fights, for this match up with Makhachev, the critics may finally have their moment. Charles Olivera’s number may be up, fortunately though for him, when facing an opponent whose UFC career has never seen a fifth round ever. (Makhachev is 22-1 with 19 wins coming by way of knock out or submission) a loss by judges decision for either fighter should still guarantee a rematch in early 2023. Both fighters are two of the most seasoned grapplers in the lightweight division. A question of who referee’s this fight may determine the likelihood of the fighters occasionally being stood back up. Expect a very good possibility that this fight will go to the ground, and stay on the ground most of the time. It will most likely be to Charles Olivera’s service that the fight occasionally be stood back up. Expect to see a new lightweight champion crowned in this fight.

Bantamweight (135lb)  Championship

(C) Aljamain Sterling (21-3) (USA) vs #2 TJ Dillashaw (18-4) (USA)

Get ready for an exciting Slugfest when current Champion Sterling goes for his second title defense against seasoned veteran TJ Dillashaw. Both fighters are quite skilled in wrestling/grappling, and both can throw big punches and kicks. Dillashaw proved in his last fight (July 2021) against Corey Sandhagen that he can take a load of punishment and keep moving forward. It got him a controversial split decision victory. From a pure fight analysis standpoint, Sterling had also fought Sandhagen several months earlier and had managed to secure a very fast submission victory in the first round.

Does this mean that Dillashaw is out of his league to fight Sterling? Possibly, but as we always like to say in the world of MMA analysis, In fight math, just because one beat two and two beat three doesn’t mean that one can necessarily defeat three…    

Sterling will have a slight height advantage but a larger reach advantage. Expect to see a lot of slugging and a lot of wrestling. Sterling may be able to win by submission if he gets a hold on early enough in the fight.

Bantamweight (135lb) Match up

#1 Peter Yan (16-3) (Russia) vs #8 Sean O’Malley (15-1-0 +1 NC) (USA)

This is not an easy fight to study, so my best advice as a gambler is to wait till the first round is over and go with your instinct from there. Peter Yan fought two very competitive fights against Aljamain Sterling in his last two octagon appearances. He likely would have won the first of those two fights if he hadn’t been disqualified due to an illegal knee (to the head of a grounded opponent.) He will undoubtedly be the most qualified opponent that Sugar Sean O’Malley has ever fought in the octagon.

But O’Malley will have one very tall advantage (pun intended) at 5’11. O’Malley is far taller than any other opponents in the Bantamweight class. Huge reach advantages have been his best friend in each of his last three fights, but the talent level may be lacking vs a seasoned veteran like Yan.

In O’Malley’s most recent fight at UFC 276 vs Pedro Munhoz, the fight needed to be scored a no contest after Munhoz could not continue following an eye poke from O’Malley. Win or Lose, its really important to see O’Malley finish this fight. The fight against Munhoz could have answered the question if O’Malley is really good, or is he just tall, a big fish in a small pond of short and light competitors. But the no contest incidental deprived us of this answer. Lets hope we get our answer on Saturday. If you’re looking for an underdog to take a small risk on. Bet for O’Malley now while he is listed as 2-1 dog. If he looks stable in the first round, live odds will likely shift him to betting favorite for the beginning of the 2nd round.

Lightweight (155lb) Match up

 #6 Beneil Dariush (21-4-1) (Iran) vs #9 Mateuz Gamrot (21-1-0+1NC) (Poland)

In the lightweight undercard match, the winner of this fight should position themselves well to become a serious contender for a title shot at 155. Dariush may be a little rusty being about 17months removed from the Octagon, but he carries a lot of power. Gamrot’s last fight was an extremely hard fought victory against an extremely competitive Armenian opponent, Arman Tsarukyan. Wrestling and punching will be on display again in this fight, and it could easily go either way. Sit back and enjoy, or if you must gamble, I would go for Dariush. He has the power to score a TKO, and he is currently the underdog so you can risk less to win more.

Women’s Flyweight Match up

#1 Katlyn Chookagian (18-4) (USA) vs #6 Manon Fiorot (9-1) (France)

The main card will open at 2pm Eastern time with this very important women’s flyweight match up. Quakertown Pennsylvania native Chookagian (who trains in Long Island NY) has been described as being the “gatekeeper” to champion Valentina Shevchenko’s belt. Chookagian had her shot against Shevchenko several years ago (it didn’t go very well for her) but she has managed to win every fight she has been given since that date. Does this mean she ought to get a rematch with the champ? Probably not, but a definitive win this weekend might get the entire league talking otherwise.

Shevchenko’s last opponent (Talia Santos of Brazil) very much deserves a rematch, but it’s not clear at this time, if that rematch may be on the horizon for early 2023. But for Katlyn Chookagian, her ID card as Gatekeeper will face its greatest challenge this Saturday when she squares off with the new French Sensation Manon Fiorot. Possibly the fastest moving fighter in the entire weight class, and a win against Chookagian will almost certainly punch her ticket for what could likely be a very competitive title shot.

Chookagian has often been able to rely on height and reach advantages vs opponents like Cynthia Calvillo, Jennifer Maia, Amanda Ribas and Vivian Arujo. Those advantages will be quite minimal against Firot who will stand and reach less than 2inches below that of Chookagian. For Chookagian, the bet from me, and from many others, is that the three year reign as gatekeeper at 125lbs will end this Saturday night. Expect Firot’s speed to earn her a judge’s 3round decision and possibly even a late TKO. A date with Val will likely follow next year, and that will be a very competitive fight to study.

Enjoy the fights everyone! And bet smart with your head, not over it.